Ethereum (ETH) bull run ceiling analysis

1. Market Sentiment Anchor Points

- Market Greed Index: 59°
- Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 69°

II. Core Principle: The Inverse Relationship Between Market Value and Price Increase

Historical data shows that there is a significant pattern in the cryptocurrency market: the larger the market cap, the smaller the price increase in each bull run. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum follow this logic, with the price increase in each bull run being lower than the previous one.

3. Estimation based on the increase during the last bull run

- Previous reference: When Ethereum broke through the historical high of $1400, the stage increase reached 240%.
- The theoretical upper limit for this round: Currently, Ethereum has surpassed $4800. If we calculate based on the previous 240% increase, it could theoretically reach 4800×(1+240%)=$16,000.
- Actual prediction: Subject to the "diminishing returns" rule, the actual increase in this round is highly likely to be "far less than" the theoretical value, possibly below 10,000 USD.

4. Constraints on the Mean Deviation Line

- Previous data: Ethereum price deviated from the annual line by 320%.
- This round of restrictions: the price deviation from the annual line will not exceed the last round.
- Specific calculation:
The current annual line is around 2700 points, and it is expected to rise to 3000 points by the end of the year.
Based on the deviation from the last round, it can theoretically reach 3000×(1+320%)=12600 USD;
Affected by the "narrowing deviation range", the actual increase may be less than $10,000.

5. The Influence and Rhythm of Leading Attributes on Price Increases

- Market Leader Positioning: In this bull run, Ethereum serves as the market leader, exhibiting a strong capital siphoning effect — capital from the entire market concentrates and flows in, supporting its strong price increase sustainability and high resistance to declines, while the influence of traditional "resistance levels" weakens.
- Compared to non-leading assets: Currently, non-leading Bitcoin has weak momentum in its price increase, relying on future catch-up, with limited amplitude.
- Leading rhythm: advance four, retreat one (steady rise);
- Non-leading rhythm: advance two, retreat one (greater volatility).
- Benchmark for growth: Referring to the leading performance of SOL at the end of 2023 and XRP at the end of 2024, Ethereum could see a growth of 5-10 times from its recent low of 1384 USD.

In summary, cross-validation across multiple dimensions shows that the ceiling for Ethereum's price increase in this bull run is likely below $10,000, but its leading attributes will support a stage increase of 5-10 times, demonstrating characteristics of "steady upward movement with limited pullbacks."