Why is short-term trading so challenging, with so few successful individuals? This question involves multiple complex factors.

First of all, the unpredictable nature of the market environment is a major obstacle. Fluctuations in the macroeconomic situation can overturn short-term market rules, causing originally effective trading strategies to lose their effectiveness in the new market environment. This unpredictability makes it difficult for traders to establish a long-term stable profit model.

Secondly, the randomness of short-term market trends often exceeds the cognitive range of ordinary investors. Market movements are difficult to summarize with simple models, and consolidation periods and corrections often last longer than expected, with more complex volatility patterns. This uncertainty increases the difficulty of short-term trading.

Moreover, short-term trading places extremely high demands on operators. High-frequency trading requires strong execution and self-discipline. Many traders find it difficult to distinguish between true market insights and luck; combined with the erosion of trading costs, it can easily turn trading into a gamble.

It is worth noting that short-term trading and trend following are two entirely different trading logics. Mid-term trend trading usually involves gradually reducing positions when noticing that the trend encounters resistance and weakens. When a clear oscillation boundary forms, the trend logic becomes invalid, and it enters a consolidation phase, at which point operations should be halted.

In contrast, short-term traders seldom consider completely stopping, which makes it difficult for them to avoid the risk of strategy failure brought about by declining market volatility. Although short-term trading seems to have operational space in both sideways and trending markets, the differences in profitability under different market conditions are significant, increasing the difficulty of maintaining consistent profits.

Overall, successful short-term trading requires deep market insight, strict risk management skills, and flexible strategy adjustment abilities. Only a few traders who excel in all these areas can achieve long-term success in short-term trading. For most investors, it may take a longer period of learning and practice to master the essence of short-term trading.