2024 U.S. Election: The Complex Factors Behind Trump's Rising Support

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, data from a certain prediction platform shows that Trump's support rate is gradually rising, with the latest forecast indicating he has garnered 53% support, while his main competitor Harris has a support rate of 46%. This change in data has sparked widespread attention and discussion, especially in the financial markets and the cryptocurrency community. The rise in Trump's support rate not only reflects his advantages in economic policy, voter mobilization, and party cohesion but also reveals the challenges and difficulties Harris faces during the campaign.

This article will analyze the key factors leading to Trump's rise in support from multiple angles, including the Democratic Party's economic policies, the shift in attitudes of centrist voters, the impact of the absence of key political figures in swing states, and the broad support for Trump from the cryptocurrency industry, in order to help readers gain a more comprehensive understanding of this complex electoral dynamic.

1. The Controversy of "Harris Economics"

Harris's proposed "Harris Economics" is one of the core policies in her campaign. However, this economic policy has sparked widespread controversy in American society, especially among moderate voters.

1. Controversy over price control policies

Among Harris's economic policies, the most controversial is the price control measures she proposed. These measures aim to limit companies' pricing power on essentials through legislative means to prevent price gouging. However, although this policy theoretically has some effect on controlling inflation and protecting consumer interests, in practice, economists and policy experts generally question its feasibility.

Many experts believe that price control may lead to market distortions, resulting in supply chain issues and shortages of goods. Some media editorials point out that Harris's price control policy could undermine the supply-demand balance in the market, even leading to black markets and hoarding phenomena. This concern is not unfounded, as historical instances of price control measures have often failed due to poor market reactions. Therefore, while Harris's policy may attract some voters hoping to lower living costs in the short term, it could lead to economic instability in the long run. This has impacted her support among centrist voters, particularly among those who are highly concerned about economic stability and market freedom.

2. Challenges of Housing Policy

Harris's housing policy has also played a complex role in the election. She proposed a plan to address the housing shortage by building a large number of affordable housing units for the middle class. This policy seems reasonable on paper, especially in the face of the increasingly severe housing crisis in the United States, as increasing housing supply is undoubtedly a direct and effective solution.

However, the problem lies in the extremely high execution cost of this policy, and its economic feasibility and actual effectiveness have been widely questioned. For example, Harris promised to build 3 million affordable housing units during her first term, but the sources of funding and the details of policy implementation have not been clearly stated. Furthermore, she also made a commitment not to increase the tax burden on families earning less than $400,000 a year, which means that the funding for the entire project may rely on large-scale government deficits or increasing taxes on the wealthy, which will undoubtedly further intensify criticism both within and outside the Democratic Party.

This uncertainty not only makes centrist voters feel uneasy but also calls into question Harris's credibility in policy implementation. Price controls on housing and subsidies for homebuyers seem to directly care for the interests of low- and middle-income voters, but in reality, they may inadvertently trigger further increases in market prices, exacerbating supply and demand contradictions. Therefore, although the proposal of housing policies demonstrates Harris's concern for social issues, the inadequacies in policy design and the difficulties in execution have had a counterproductive effect on the election situation.

3. The Appeal and Limitations for the Middle Class

Harris's economic policy centers on improving the quality of life for the middle class, with a particular emphasis on increasing child tax credits and controlling healthcare costs to enhance economic security for the middle class. These measures theoretically help alleviate the economic pressures faced by the American middle class, especially against the backdrop of rising childcare costs and healthcare expenses.

However, as some critics have pointed out, while these policies have garnered some support from voters, the issues of long-term sustainability and funding sources remain unresolved dilemmas. The votes of the middle class are crucial for any candidate, but if the implementation of the policies is mishandled, these votes may shift to opponents. Although Harris's policy design has an idealistic tone, the potential problems during the execution process, such as possibly increasing the government fiscal deficit, undermine the actual appeal of these policies to the middle class.

In addition, Harris has attempted to combine economic policies with social justice issues, such as achieving broader social equity through anti-discrimination legislation and reducing the economic burden on impoverished groups. However, this approach has raised concerns among conservatives and some moderates, who believe that these policies may further expand government power and increase social and economic uncertainty while winning progressive support.

4. Overall impact on the election situation

Overall, Harris's economic policies, while demonstrating some concern for the middle class and low-income groups, have not effectively increased her support among centrist and economically liberal voters due to the radical nature of the policy design and lack of execution details. On the contrary, these voters may be more inclined to support Trump, who has clearer positions and more pragmatic policies.

The controversy surrounding these policies not only put Harris in a passive position in the election, but also provided Trump with a pretext for attack. Trump can leverage the uncertainty in these policies to emphasize his experience in economic management and support for market freedom, thereby attracting voters who are more concerned about economic stability and growth. Therefore, the impact of the Democratic Party's economic policies in this election is twofold: on one hand, it strengthens Harris's support among progressives, and on the other hand, it creates more uncertainty among key centrist voters, thereby providing conditions for Trump's rise in support.

2. The Attitudes of American Moderate Voters are Uncertain

Centrist voters often play a key role in U.S. elections. Their positions typically do not lean toward either side, focusing more on the candidates' actual policies and their impact on the economy and society. Against the backdrop of controversy surrounding Harris's economic policies, support for her among centrist voters has begun to decline. In contrast, although Trump's economic policies are controversial, his clear stance on tax cuts and economic stimulus aligns more closely with centrist voters' expectations for economic development.

In addition, Trump's support for the free market and the economic measures he implemented during his presidency, such as tax cuts and deregulation, have received recognition from some centrist voters. In contrast, Harris's economic policies are considered too radical, especially in areas like price controls and housing subsidies, making it difficult for her to increase support among centrists.

3. Will the absence of Pennsylvania Governor Shapiro at the Democratic Party meeting shake the morale?

The absence of Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro has negatively impacted Harris's electoral prospects. As a key swing state, the attitudes of its voters are crucial to the outcome of the national election. Shapiro's absence may be interpreted as dissatisfaction within the party regarding Harris's economic policies or campaign strategies, and this discontent may further weaken Harris's support in the state.

In this case, voters may doubt Harris's campaigning ability and party cohesion, turning instead to support the more certain Trump. Shapiro's absence not only affects Harris's election prospects in Pennsylvania but also indirectly impacts her performance in other swing states. For Harris, ensuring party unity and support in key states is crucial for her campaign's success, but Shapiro's absence undoubtedly adds to her challenges in this regard.

4. Trump and the "mutual pursuit" with the crypto industry?

Trump's support for the cryptocurrency industry is another important factor in his rising election rates. Although Trump had a negative attitude towards cryptocurrency in the early stages, he gradually changed his stance as the market developed and began to actively support the crypto industry.

In the 2024 election, Trump became one of the first major candidates to openly accept cryptocurrency donations. His campaign team announced the acceptance of donations in various cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP. This move not only showcased his open attitude towards cryptocurrencies but also established a closer connection with the crypto community.

The decision to accept cryptocurrency donations is a strategic move that not only broadens Trump's voter base but also attracts young voters and tech enthusiasts who are skeptical of the traditional financial system. These voters often have a strong identification with decentralization, free markets, and financial innovation, and by accepting cryptocurrency donations, Trump sends them a clear message: he supports this emerging field and is willing to advocate for it politically.

In addition to accepting cryptocurrency donations, Trump has made a series of policy commitments that further solidify his position within the crypto community. One of the most notable commitments is the pardon of the Silk Road founder. The Silk Road was one of the earliest and most famous cryptocurrency trading platforms, and the case holds significant symbolic meaning within the crypto community. This commitment from Trump has not only won him the favor of many cryptocurrency supporters but also conveyed his tolerant attitude towards the cryptocurrency industry to the outside world.

In addition, Trump also stated that if he is elected again, he will promote the inclusion of Bitcoin into the strategic reserves of the United States and consider using Bitcoin to address some national debt issues. Although these proposals have sparked widespread controversy in mainstream finance, they have received a warm response within the crypto community. Cryptocurrency supporters believe that these initiatives will greatly enhance the legitimacy and global status of cryptocurrencies, bringing greater development opportunities to the industry.

This supportive attitude has gained wide recognition in the crypto community. Compared to Harris, Trump's position in the cryptocurrency field is clearer and more proactive, which has garnered him a large number of supporters in this emerging market. Practitioners and investors in the cryptocurrency industry are very sensitive to market prospects, and they are more willing to support a candidate who has an open attitude towards the crypto industry. Trump's position has clearly won him the support of this segment of voters and has boosted his approval ratings.

V. Election Spending by Crypto Companies in the 2024 U.S. Election Cycle

According to a report from a certain organization, nearly half of the corporate political donations during the 2024 election cycle come from cryptocurrency companies. These companies influence electoral outcomes by supporting candidates whose interests align with their own. The cryptocurrency industry's support for Trump is not only reflected in rhetoric but also has materially affected the election through financial assistance.

This level of corporate support further solidifies Trump's position within the crypto community and related industries. As more crypto companies and individual investors direct funds toward the political action committee (PAC) supporting Trump, his financial and promotional advantages in the election are strengthened, which also directly drives his rise in the prediction markets.

Conclusion: The final outcome is unpredictable, but we look forward to the elected candidate further relaxing Web3 policies.

In summary, the rise in Trump's support rate is the result of multiple factors working together. Harris's economic policies have sparked controversy, making it difficult for her support to increase, especially among moderate voters. The absence of Pennsylvania Governor Shapiro has heightened concerns about divisions within the party, further weakening.