Strong Market Reversal: BTC Soars 14% in April, Billions in Funds Pour In

In April, the Bitcoin market experienced a strong rebound, rising 14.11% in a single month, recovering all previous losses. Despite the global financial markets being highly volatile due to trade frictions, Bitcoin adjusted ahead of the stock market and stabilized first. Driven by a large influx of funds, Bitcoin's upward momentum is strong. More importantly, after more than two months of adjustment, the holding structure of Bitcoin has greatly improved, and its internal state is more stable.

Although the S&P 500 and the crypto market have fully recovered from their previous declines, the market outlook remains uncertain. A true reversal will require a resolution to trade disputes and further confirmation of U.S. economic data. During this process, the market is expected to experience several ups and downs.

In terms of macro finance, trade frictions have triggered significant adjustments in the market. At the beginning of April, the United States announced an increase in tariffs on global goods, leading to a panic sell-off in the US stock market, with all three major indices falling below their annual lines. The bond and foreign exchange markets also faced a wave of selling. However, as the policy stance softened and relatively strong economic and employment data was released, investors began to re-enter the market to scoop up bargains.

In April, the US CPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year, hitting a nearly two-year low. The annualized quarterly GDP in the first quarter decreased by 0.3%, lower than market expectations. In April, non-farm payrolls increased by 177,000, and the unemployment rate remained around 4.187%, indicating that the labor market is still resilient. These data have temporarily alleviated market concerns about an economic recession.

In terms of crypto assets, Bitcoin experienced a significant decline at the beginning of the month but then rebounded strongly. In April, BTC dropped to a low of $74,420, closing at $94,182, marking a 14.11% increase for the month. Technically, BTC confirmed the long-term trend after multiple tests of the annual line and broke through the 200-day moving average, approaching the upward trend line of the current bull market.

Bitcoin's performance is stronger than that of the US stock market, thanks to the price correction that began in March, the increase in holdings by long-term investors and large holders, as well as favorable support from policy measures. Several US states are advancing Bitcoin reserve bills, further expanding the application scenarios for Bitcoin.

From the perspective of the holding structure, long-term holders shifted from selling to increasing their holdings during the decline in March. The group of large holders holding 100-1000 BTC also accelerated their buying in April, increasing their holdings by over 80,000 BTC throughout the month. The amount of BTC stored on exchanges decreased by about 60,000 BTC in April. These changes are conducive to price stability.

In terms of capital flow, the overall net inflow of the market in April was 8.4 billion USD, making it the sixth largest inflow month since this cycle began. If we add the 25,370 BTC acquired by a certain company through fundraising, the total inflow of funds in the market in April exceeded 10 billion USD.

In summary, despite the severe fluctuations in the market from February to April, an analysis of fund flows and holding structures indicates that the market cycle is still in an upward phase. This adjustment helps to strengthen the chip structure. Once the impact of trade frictions fades and market trading enthusiasm is rekindled, the price of Bitcoin is expected to break upward again.

However, the uncertainty of the external environment remains significant. The economic recession and the upward inflation risks that may be triggered by trade frictions require close attention. Market trends are the result of the game played by all parties under dynamic conditions. While maintaining an optimistic outlook on the long-term prospects of BTC, it is also necessary to be vigilant about the potential impact of external factors on capital, sentiment, and the global economy.