Labubu toys are remarkably similar to NFTs, and the hype around scarcity may repeat past mistakes.

Labubu is a fictional character created by Hong Kong artist Long Jia Sheng in 2015, belonging to the "THE MONSTERS" series under a certain toy company. This design combines elements of dark elves from Norse mythology with Eastern aesthetics, forming a unique "ugly-cute" style that subverts the sweet image of traditional toys.

Labubu initially spread as a character in picture books, and after collaborating with a toy company to launch blind boxes in 2019, it quickly rose from the art world to become a globally recognized trendy toy IP.

In April 2024, a member of a well-known girl group showcased her Labubu doll on social media, referring to it as "my baby." This move sparked a buying frenzy in Southeast Asia, with prices in the Thai market even being inflated to seven times the original price.

Subsequently, multiple international celebrities hung Labubu on luxury handbags, transforming it from an ordinary toy into a "luxury accessory," thereby initiating a new wave of speculation, which sparked global demand and drove the market price up several times.

On June 10, the world's only original mint-colored Labubu made its debut at an auction, ultimately selling for a high price of 1.08 million yuan. This event drove the stock prices of related companies to reach an all-time high, with an increase of nearly 10 times within a year, and the company's founder became the richest person in a certain province as a result.

This phenomenon inevitably reminds people of the NFT craze that swept the globe a few years ago. Both are driven by celebrity influence, both have reached sky-high prices at auctions, and both have sparked nationwide speculation. The only difference is that one is a physical asset, while the other is a virtual asset.

In-depth analysis reveals that the core concepts of the two are very similar. Both stimulate the consumer's "Fear of Missing Out (FOMO)" psychology by creating scarcity; at the same time, both rely on social media for dissemination, with Labubu enthusiasts showcasing hidden items on social platforms and NFT collectors setting their collections as avatars, both reflecting a strong social attribute.

So, will Labubu follow the same path as NFTs? From experiencing a booming market hype to ultimately returning to calm, and even facing a bleak ending after the hype bubble burst. After all, the NFT avatars that were worth millions back then have now lost 90% of their value.

We can take a look at the development history of other well-known IPs from this toy company. MOLLY, as the company's first hit IP (born in 2006), created scarcity through cross-border collaborations with luxury brands and trendy labels, with some co-branded items priced over ten thousand yuan, and a 300% premium in the second-hand market. However, the popularity cycle of the new series has shortened to 6-12 months, with some styles having their prices halved compared to peak periods.

Another IP called SKULLPANDA saw a 40% drop in resale price within six months due to a surge in supply.

Although we cannot comprehensively compare the price fluctuations of all the IPs released by the company, some representative IPs have generally returned to calm after experiencing market hype, and their prices have also seen a significant decline, which is very similar to the development trajectory of NFTs.

Currently, the LABUBU, originally priced at 599 yuan, has soared to nearly 15,000 yuan in the second-hand market. This brings to mind another hot collectible, the block bear, that was all the rage over a decade ago. At that time, a collaboration with a luxury brand fetched a high price of 220,000 yuan, but now most models are only worth 30%-50% of their original price. So, can Labubu avoid such a fate?

History seems to have provided an answer. No matter how glamorous the story, there will eventually be an ending, and currently, it seems that only Bitcoin can break this pattern.

Moreover, the scarcity of Labubu is merely shaped by official descriptions. In contrast, NFTs inherently possess absolute scarcity, which cannot be destroyed or artificially interfered with from a technical standpoint. From this perspective, the combination of NFTs and Labubu seems to be more noteworthy, but that is another topic.