Dynamics and Hotspot Analysis in the Web3 Field

1. Market Overview

1. Macroeconomic Situation

Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, lowering the expectation for cuts this year from 100 basis points to 75 basis points. The report pointed out that claims about a rebound in core inflation may be exaggerated. Data shows that the annualized increase in core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation from September to November last year was 2.5%, slightly higher than the 2.3% in the previous three months, but still below the year-on-year increase of 2.8%, indicating a continued downward trend in inflation.

The revised data from the Dallas Fed further supports this view, showing that the annualized PCE inflation from September to November last year was 2.4%, with the inflation rate falling to 1.8% in November. The labor market is gradually tightening, with the annual wage growth rate slowing to 3.9%, within a reasonable range of 3.5% to 4%. Experts believe that if productivity growth remains between 1.5% and 2% in the coming years, it will align with the 2% inflation target.

2. Changes in Cryptocurrency Tax Policy

The IRS announced that the implementation date for cryptocurrency tax reporting rules has been postponed to December 31, 2025. This decision aims to provide brokers with more time to address legal and regulatory challenges. Meanwhile, the IRS also issued a temporary relief measure, which is expected to benefit cryptocurrency holders on centralized finance (CeFi) trading platforms in 2025.

The new regulation requires the use of the First-In-First-Out ( FIFO ) accounting method for crypto assets starting from January 1, 2025, unless the Highest-In-First-Out ( HIFO ) or Specific Identification ( Spec ID ) methods are chosen. This change will provide investors with more flexibility while also giving regulators time to develop more comprehensive policies.

2. Hot Events

1. Syria considers a Bitcoin-based banking system

A non-governmental organization in Syria has proposed that the new government consider establishing a banking system based on the Bitcoin network and related technologies. The Syrian Economic Research Center ( SCER ) believes that such a system is crucial for accelerating national reconstruction and protecting the public from the effects of inflation and currency devaluation.

The proposal, known as the "Syrian Bitcoin Policy," aims to provide innovative solutions for countries facing economic difficulties. SCER recommends that the government establish a comprehensive regulatory framework to legalize the trading and mining of Bitcoin and other digital assets, thereby promoting economic recovery. Additionally, the proposal suggests digitizing the Syrian pound and considering asset backing including the US dollar and Bitcoin.

2. Ethereum News Weekly Ceases Operations

Ethereum News Weekly ( WiE ) founder announced that the media will officially cease operations on January 1, 2025. This decision stems from communication with the leadership of the Ethereum Foundation ( EF ), indicating that EF's perception of WiE's value has significantly diminished, and it provided only symbolic financial support in 2024.

The founder stated that although there was an opportunity to continue operations through fundraising, he preferred to focus on other meaningful projects. He pointed out that WiE failed to find a sustainable business model, and advertising and sponsorship revenues were insufficient to maintain operations. Additionally, he emphasized the issues within the Ethereum ecosystem, namely the excessive focus on code development and research, while neglecting other important contributions.

3. The Elon Musk name change incident triggered market fluctuations.

A few days ago, Elon Musk renamed his account on social media to "Kekius Maximus" and used a PEPE frog as his profile picture, attracting widespread attention. This move had a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market, particularly on the KEKIUS token, which shares its name with the new title and experienced a rapid rise and fall in price in a short period of time.

Although Musk did not directly mention his relationship with the KEKIUS token, his social media activities often have a strong impact on the cryptocurrency market. This event once again highlights the importance of social media influence on the cryptocurrency market and has sparked discussions about market speculation.

3. Hot Project Analysis

T3AI Project Introduction

T3AI is a DeFi network protocol that combines AI, aimed at solving the problem of excessive collateralization in the DeFi ecosystem. The project introduces a dedicated AI agent as a trusted intermediary, ensuring loan repayability through dynamic risk management algorithms, while allowing users to freely invest, trade, or stake on-chain to achieve higher capital returns.

The token distribution of T3 is 90.5% for free circulation and 9.5% for development rewards and community activities. The project's revenue model includes a 0.3% loan as income, of which 80% is used for buybacks. In addition, 10% of the loan will be paid in T3AI tokens, while the remaining 90% will be paid in SOL or USDC.

It is worth noting that the project experienced a rapid price surge in a short period of time, and the development team conducted a partial sell-off of their holdings in the early morning for infrastructure development. This action sparked discussions in the market regarding the long-term development of the project and the credibility of the team.

4. Market Sector Analysis

According to the latest data, the cryptocurrency market shows mixed performance across different sectors. AI-related projects continue to attract attention, while the DeFi and NFT sectors also exhibit a certain level of activity. The specific performance is as follows:

1. The AI sector remains strong, with multiple projects experiencing varying degrees of increase.
2. The DeFi sector remains stable overall, with some projects showing slight growth.
3. The NFT market is active, but prices are quite volatile.
4. Public chain projects are performing steadily, with the main focus on technological upgrades and ecosystem development.

Investors should closely monitor the development trends of various sectors, and make prudent investment decisions in conjunction with the macroeconomic situation and policy changes.